Market sentiment is the assessment of traders' attitudes and emotions regarding a particular asset or investment. Whereas technical and fundamental analysis take a structured approach to understanding behavior, sentiment analysis aims to gain insights into how individual sentiments are affecting market prices. Attitudes do not necessarily reflect quantifiable metrics but express the shared feelings of a group.
Market sentiment analysis requires researching social channels, product news, transaction alerts and reading sentiment indicators to gauge current or upcoming market movements. Unlike traditional stock or forex markets with significant institutional involvement, sentiment analysis of cryptocurrency markets helps to understand more due to the social nature of the industry. After all, a single tweet or road map update is enough to send a currency up in price or crash the market.
What Is Crypto Sentiment?
Expressing an assessment or opinion about the state of a market through the term "sentiment". Crypto market sentiment analyzes the general emotional state and attitude of investors towards assets. It reveals the sentiment of the crowd involved in cryptocurrency trading and development as reflected in social media and trading metrics.
Basically, crypto market sentiment analysis is an assessment of the psychological state of a population that affects the price of cryptocurrencies.
How investors feel about a cryptocurrency can have a real impact on market cycles and cryptocurrency prices. If most traders act on these ideas, thoughts and feelings that they share with each other, the consequences can be serious. A real example of this is how Elon Musk's tweets have affected the price of Bitcoin.
How to Gauge the Market Sentiment
There are several significant statistics to analyze cryptocurrency market sentiment. Funding rates, sentiment indicators, social media and community analytics, and whale monitoring all provide important information on the trajectory and movement of cryptocurrency assets.
Here is a breakdown of the key factors that are included in each sentiment analysis.
Funding Rates
The funding rate is a trackable metric of a cryptocurrency that is often directly related to market sentiment. The funding rate difference in value arising between the cryptocurrency perpetual contract and the spot price of the currency or token affects the periodic payments distributed to investors.
When the funds rate is positive, long traders are paying short traders and the market signals bullishness. On the other hand, when the funds are negative, usually seen as short traders paying long traders, this is a bearish sign.
Funds divergence occurs as traders borrow USD in a bullish market to buy Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. As a result, when traders successfully short the market, funding rates for cryptocurrencies are higher than for fiat currencies. There are several tools available to track funding rates on exchanges.
Check your favorite crypto-derivatives exchange or consult any of the sources below for funding rate data.
Understanding Sentiment Indices
Sentiment indicators help you use a numeric to assess the current state of the cryptocurrency market. Sentiment indicators are used to show whether investors will behave fearfully or greedily and may be influenced by volatility, market momentum, investor responses to surveys, Google Trends, demand for junk bonds and more.
Generally, a fearful market is considered a good opportunity to buy if you know how to pick the right assets, while a greedy market indicates that it is a good time to sell.
Social Media and Communities Analysis
Social media may present mixed statistics, but the activity on Twitter, Discord Channels, Telegram, and Reddit is important when assessing crypto market sentiment. An active and engaged social community will have a significant number of followers and meaningful social interaction across platforms.
Another popular method for gauging cryptocurrency market interest is Google Trends. Google Trends shows search activity for a specific keyword phrase and you can see if searches for a particular cryptocurrency are trending upwards or downwards.
In general, look at any hype that follows the crypto asset and how investors feel about current developments and road map progress. A hype usually attracts more market participants and naturally signals a bullish sentiment to come. But ultimately, a comparison of activity across channels can reveal broad support influencing current or upcoming market movements. After that, technical analysis is required for the best way to formulate objective trading strategies.
Whale Monitoring
A cryptocurrency whale is an investor who holds and manages large amounts of transactions across different blockchains. Whale monitoring is the name given to monitoring big traders in the crypto world. Whale monitors first identify the trades of major market participants and then trade accordingly.
There are blockchain explorers to help analyze the exchange of cryptocurrencies in various markets. Moreover, analyzing on-chain metrics related to supply and demand requires specialized knowledge
Here are several popular resources for tracking crypto whale trading activity, these resources eliminate the need for technical knowledge:
- Whale Alert (Twitter)
- WhaleTrace
- ClankApp
Indicators for Market Sentiment Analysis
Market sentiment analysis is the main component to accurately assess the rise or fall of a cryptocurrency coin or token. While investors can consult various institutions to get an idea of ββthe market, here are the key indicators for each cryptocurrency market sentiment analysis.
Technical Analysis
The goal of technical analysis is to predict the short-term future price of a particular cryptocurrency by looking at its past price and trade volume. Analysts believe that trading patterns follow recognizable trends and that these trends usually repeat themselves. For example Elliott wave patterns, moving averages and Bollinger bands etc.
Fundamental Analysis
Analysts of this school of thought seek to determine the underlying value of a cryptocurrency. Their purpose is to identify whether the property is overvalued or undervalued. Studying the team behind a project, the application of the technology, how widely it is being adopted, case studies using that technology or cryptocurrency, and blockchain and financial metrics.
Fear & Greed Index
The Fear and Lust Index provides a global market sentiment indicator in conventional stock markets. The sentiment index has a numerical value from 0 to 100, with 0 being extreme fear and 100 being extreme greed. Its main objective is to show whether investors are behaving fearfully or greedily.
Similarly, the Bitcoin Fear and Lust Index using six indicators is calculated by measuring the prevailing sentiment towards cryptocurrencies in the cryptocurrency market. These are Volatility, Market Momentum, Social Media, Surveys, Bitcoin Dominance and Google Trends.
Bull & Bear Index(BBI)
Another popular reliable Bitcoin sentiment indicator created by Augmento with a focus on social media metrics is the Bull and Bear Index (BBI), an AI initiative that measures community psychology. BBI analyzed 93 sentiments using artificial intelligence to evaluate topics and conversations, correlating data from Bitcoin forums, Reddit, Twitter, and digital asset market movements. Zero indicates an extreme bear market, while 1 is extremely bullish.
DeFi Total Value Locked (TVL)
DeFi Total Value Lock (TVL) accurately indicates the health of DeFi and its market. TVL works on the current total supply, peak supply, and cryptocurrency price. Traders use the TVL ratio to determine whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued.
The TVL ratio is calculated by multiplying the current supply with the current trading priceDivide the yield by the market capitalization, and you get your TVL ratio. When the TVL ratio falls below 1, it is generally considered an undervalued DeFi asset.
Altcoin Gainers and Losers
Like an ever-changing scoreboard, Altcoin gainers and losers are top-performing or crashing coins at different times. Instead of manually charting the gains and losses of various cryptocurrencies, investors can use readily available cryptocurrency investment trackers.
Here are some of the best altcoin profit and loss trackers to help you with your crypto investment strategies:
How Reliable Is Crypto Market Sentiment?
Crypto market sentiment can be a very useful tool to add to your arsenal. However, the imprecise nature of combining public opinion, attitude, mood and outlook means that there are no accurate tools for measuring market sentiment. When you combine sentiment analysis with technical and fundamental analysis, you can get a clear idea of ββthe cryptocurrency's value.
Closing Thoughts
Understanding cryptocurrency market sentiment and having an understanding of the broader market is applicable to every active investor. As with any financial investment, the more information you have, the better you will be at understanding the market. Following successful trading strategies creates better prospects for you. After all, markets based on supply and demand are heavily influenced by psychology. Following a barometer for market sentiment keeps you plugged in and ready to make informed trades.
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